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Friday 20 December 2013

Mistakes made?

Peter Crouch played well as a lone front-man again
despite a lack of goals at Hull
A draw at Hull was never going to be considered a bad result considering they have created quite a fortress for travelling teams to attempt to breach. Only Crystal Palace have breached the KC Stadium this season and taken three points, which is a testament to the importance Hull have placed on home form in their bid for survival. Stoke on the other hand seem to be having mixed fortunes in games, particularly away from home. The game against Hull is a case in point where for the first 30-40 minutes of the game, Stoke failed to impose themselves on Hull, appearing out of the two teams the one more likely to concede. Although I think he will have a bright future, as a defender, Marc Muniesa had a tough game at left-back against Hull's right wing-back Ahmed Elmohamady. Perhaps sensing our weakness there, Hull continued to play the ball out to Elmohamady in the first half, and at the beginning of the second before Mark Hughes spared the Spaniard and replaced him with Erik Pieters who was largely untroubled for the remainder of the game.

Stephen Ireland, playing well with Peter Crouch
When on the offensive, Stoke were unlucky not to have troubled Allan McGregor more than they did with some chances that on another day would have punished. The most heinous of the chances that Stoke failed to capitalize on fell to Marko Arnautovic, who one-on-one with McGregor, and with the option of squaring the ball to Oussama Assaidi chose to shoot straight at the goalkeeper and fluffed his shot. A simple pass to Assaidi and the three points would be in Stoke now. McGregor earnt his wage though during the game, notably keeping out a first-touch effort from Peter Crouch after good wide-play between Geoff Cameron and Stephen Ireland. Again the partnership between Ireland and Crouch appeared threatening when Ireland had the ball in the net from a Crouch flick-on, but the Irishman was called offside, rightfully so. Set-pieces also showed that we can be a menace from a dead-ball with Ryan Shawcross climbing high to get his head on the ball and heading it against the crossbar. Whilst Hull still remained a threat in the second half, the substitution of Pieters for Muniesa limited their freedom and although there was always a fear they could score in the last minute and steal the points, Stoke safely saw the game out. What was galling for some Stoke fans to see was the misuse of substitutions again, with the introductions of Charlie Adam and Wilson Palacios not as welcome as perhaps seeing Jermaine Pennant or Kenwyne Jones about to enter the fray. To reiterate, a point in Hull is not a bad thing, but it should be questioned whether we made the changes to try and take more than a share of the spoils.

Back to the Brit - Stoke City vs Manchester United:

Ashley Young scored to silence the boo-boys at the Brit
Just as a point at Hull is a good thing, a loss to Manchester United cannot be considered the beginning of the end of the world. In the first half, the weather assisted Stoke in imposing a deep-pressing style of play, allowing Manchester United to have the ball in their own half. The break in play did not even disturb Stoke as they pounced on any weather-based errors and went more direct. Despite not having any shots on target during the first half, they were a threat. The second half proved that Stoke's game plan was to take advantage of the weather, with their pressing game failing to control United well enough when the ball travelled in the direction they aimed. The introduction of Javier Hernandez influenced proceedings as it forced Stoke to watch out for a player who had scored regularly against the Potters. This knack he has against the Potters was shown before United's first goal, with Ryan Shawcross paying attention to the Mexican and delegating the role of watching the run of Ashley Young to Wilson Palacios. Whether by a confusion of responsibility or simple laziness after playing his normal quota of minutes, Palacios failed to follow Young's run and was paces behind when Young smashed the ball past Thomas Sorensen into the top corner of the net.

Patrice Evra showing that lefties can score with their right
At this point, it was not panic stations for Stoke supporters. After being a goal down against Chelsea recently, there was a possibility still that a comeback was on the cards. All that was needed was a higher tempo of play from the players and maybe an attacking substitution from the bench. The latter did happen, in an unorthodox manner. With Charlie Adam ready to come on, Wilson Palacios started to get his bum warm for a seat on the bench. At the same time, Ryan Shawcross was signalling to the bench that he could not play on. For reasons unknown, the end result was Palacios remaining on the field and Adam coming on for Shawcross. On paper and on the field, this was a bad choice. Positionally Palacios did not know where to go. Centre-half, right-back, midfield? Manchester United took ahold of Stoke's disorganisation and a lay-off to Patrice Evra was finished with a weak-foot finish from range for the full-back. At the time, Glenn Whelan and Jon Walters were covering right back, with Geoff Cameron at centre-half, and Palacios nowhere to be seen, Evra snuck in and took a shot.Whilst respecting that substitutes may need a warm-up before coming on, what prevented the Stoke bench from bringing on Andy Wilkinson or Marc Muniesa for Shawcross? If there was nothing preventing them, then this is the second game in a week when I feel the bench could have done better to influence the result.

Well-travelled Villains:

Matt Lowton's strike killed off Stoke's comeback
and threatened them seriously with relegation last season
No Stoke supporter will forget the strike from Matt Lowton last season that put the Potters on the precipice of relegation, as much as they may have tried to. With results harder to find than a Christmas Light in Stoke Town, a sucker punch like this left many Stoke supporters contemplating relegation for the first time in a long time. Whilst Stoke have changed managers in the time since they last played, Villa have continued to place their faith in Paul Lambert. Whilst they are still as inconsistent as they were last season, they look like a team with an identity again. Under Martin O'Neill, his Villa team would go into a game and use the pace of Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Stewart Downing and the engine of James Milner to cause the opposition problems. Several years have passed since then and the current attacking trident of Weimann, Agbonlahor and Benteke seem to have helped Villa settle on how they want to play. Similar to the Villa team under O'Neill, they use the pace of Weimann and Agbonlahor out wide, yet with the target-man option Benteke provides, there is an element of power in their attack now. Even in the last few weeks when Benteke has failed to register a goal, opposition defences will have known that they were going to have a tough game from these three. Lady luck has, perhaps, shone on Stoke with Agbonlahor being unavailable for selection due to a one-match ban, whilst Benteke has continued his poor record in front of goal this season. Libor Kozak appears to be a useful player, but perhaps not in this Villa team that treats the last frontman as a target man rather than just a focal point of attack (ala Messi at Barcelona). The return of Fabian Delph will not weaken Villa as Yacouba Sylla failed to deliver the basics of a good defensive performance against Manchester United last week, offering Antonio Valencia too much room on the wing by not supporting his full back. Delph is a willing runner, and is not frightened to get his foot in to a tackle so Geoff Cameron or Andy Wilkinson may not expect the same amount of room that Rafael was offered last week.

Could Ireland's absence help Stoke to the three points?
What Villa are lacking in their team is a spark of creativity. Someone who can release the ball to their pacey wide-men or thread a through-ball for Benteke to nick a goal. This is where it is surprising that the one man who cannot play tomorrow was released from Villa this summer on loan: Stephen Ireland. Whilst he has been in good form the last three games, linking well with Peter Crouch, I question whether it is worth breaking this partnership up for this game anyway, even if he had been available. Against Manchester United, Ireland failed to get close enough to Crouch, opting to support the midfield in their defensive duties. However, with United playing a midfield trio for the first 60 minutes of the game, Ireland felt he had to drop deep to support his defence. Now, supposing Villa line up with a three man midfield (El Ahmadi, Westwood and Delph perhaps), then what would prevent Villa drawing in Ireland in as United did? If Ireland is occupied, then Stoke's creativity disappears. For this game, it may be worth experimenting on Plan B, how to build up an attack without Ireland. Whilst Adam looks like a shoe-in to be Ireland's replacement, I would not play through him, with his recent performances showing that he does not play well with the responsibility of the team on him. Who I would play the ball out to is our wide full backs, in an attempt to draw Weimann and Albrighton (the widemen Villa may pick) further back and take them away from Benteke. For this reason, if Ryan Shawcross fails to appear on Saturday, I would be tempted to pick Muniesa at centre-half over dropping Cameron inside and playing Andy Wilkinson. This season Cameron has been such a prominent attacking threat that as good a centre-half as he could be, I feel we would lose an aspect of our attack by moving him inside. With Cameron and Pieters pushing forward, Villa would have their hands full, and despite improving on last season, they are still frail defensively, as shown in their last two games against Fulham and Manchester United.

Away from the Brit - Sacking Season:

Clarke's sacking at West Brom was the most surprising so far
Three managers in the top two divisions have lost their job in the past week, whilst another in Malky Mackay could be about to join them. If you place the sackings on a scale of 1 being very harsh and 5 being not harsh at all, I don't think there would be any 5s being handed out. The first sacking was the most shocking in my eyes with Steve Clarke doing a fantastic job in his time at West Bromwich Albion, surpassing my expectations of him as a manager. Yes they've had a poor calendar year, and poor results have been frustrating, but it has to be remembered that last season they were bolstered by Romelu Lukaku whilst this year their star signing on deadline day was Victor Anichebe! Results were bound to dip this year. In my pre-season predictions I said they would be around 12th place. Whilst that is a drop in the league from the previous season, I felt it was a good target for his second season. Despite sitting in 16th position in the league at present, they are only four points from my predicted position, and five points from a top ten position. The season was not irretrievable and when they handed him his P45 there were no better managers out there. That was until today anyway.

Vincent Tan and Malky Mackay, now at loggerheads
The football world at large will have sympathy for Malky Mackay, except for some Swansea fans of course. Considering Cardiff's current league position, their impressive performances so far this season against teams across the league, plus the nature of the signings that Mackay made in the summer, few would have expected such a turbulent end to a managerial post. Vincent Tan's claims that Cardiff overspent this summer, past £35m they had budgeted and towards a £50m total seem improbable, although not impossible. Looking at the players brought in - Cornelius, Brayford, Moore, Caulker, Medel, Theophile-Catherine, Amondariain and Odemwingie - it seems unlikely that this group cost in great excess of £35m. Although all fees were undisclosed, Cornelius was reportedly £8m, whilst Caulker was £9m, and Medel £10m as their record signing. So at the £27m mark, we include a nominal fee to Brentford for Moore, and fees for Brayford, Theophile-Catherine,Amondarain and Odemwingie, which in my opinion would be surprising if they cost £8m between them, let alone closer to £23m. Unless Tan included wages when he made this statement, then the reported fees do not add up. Mackay, at the time of writing, is standing firm and not resigning, and not for one minute do I blame him as he should not sacrifice a £3m pay-off just to please a man who wants to remove him. With West Brom looking for a manager though, it may not be long before Mackay finds a club and an owner willing to treat him more fairly than Tan has in recent times.

Quick Snippet - Champions League Draw

James Milner celebrates the winning goal versus Bayern Munich
Can an English team win the Champions League this year? I think all four teams have a chance. A slim chance, but a chance. Whilst Manchester City and Arsenal have tough draws against Barcelona and Bayern Munich respectively, Manchester United and Chelsea have 'easier' ties against Olympiakos and Galatasaray . Whilst the City and Arsenal look like easy prey for two of Europe's most dominant club sides in recent years, they will be a challenge. For example, I cannot see Barcelona looking forward to a trip to the Etihad, where City have scored four past Manchester United, and six past Arsenal. Likewise, Bayern know that Arsenal are capable of scoring against them after their win in Munich last season, whilst their win in Dortmund will not encourage a complacent performance from the Bavarians. On the other side of the draw, whilst Galatasaray are tough opposition for Chelsea, knowing full well what Didier Drogba is capable of when he is fired up, Chelsea should be able to conquer them over two legs. As for Olympiakos, their players will deserve the freedom of Greece if they beat Manchester United over the two legs. Whilst they may prove tough, like Stoke, at home, it would be a footballing shock to not see Manchester United overcome them and progress into the quarter-finals. And if all four teams make it to that stage, who knows what could happen?

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